'Cover-up' claims from US are all sound and fury（謊言：美國(guó)最新一輪陰謀論的源頭）
"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Mark Twain is often credited for this well-worn adage about the power of numbers to deceive. He didn't come up with it, but it sure sounds like something he'd say.
Some in the United States have studied this expression well, given their latest attacks on China. They've made it a little simpler, though: In the absence of statistics, all they have to throw around are lies.
The newest round of absurdities comes courtesy of a government and media struggling to find a scapegoat for their disastrous handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. As China emerges from lockdown after successful containment of the virus — though concern remains over a possible second wave — a furious US populace, with tens of thousands dead and hundreds of thousands infected, is demanding to know why those in charge did not act sooner. Rather than provide an apology or real solutions, some are alleging China deliberately undercounted its infections and deaths in an effort to "cover up" the scale of the outbreak and mislead the world.
This is, of course, an utter falsehood. Ask any of these people to substantiate their claims and they'll come up empty, maybe mumble something about their gut tells them they're right. At most, they will cite poorly sourced reports that should never have been published in the first place.
Friday's revision of Wuhan's death toll has thrown fuel on the conspiratorial fire. Already the hyenas in the Western press are salivating, drawing the worst possible conclusions from what would be commended if it happened in any other country. Now that the worst of the outbreak has passed, Wuhan has been able to take a breath and audit its data to ensure an accurate count. One would think this is the very behavior critics want to see. But since they're continuing to take potshots at China anyway, we can guess how genuine their commitment to transparency really is.
The uptick in numbers has several perfectly reasonable explanations. When the virus was at its apex, health systems were stretched to their absolute limits. This was remedied with the swift construction of temporary hospitals, but those Herculean efforts could not save everyone and some sadly passed away at home. Testing infrastructure also took time to catch up to the spread of the epidemic, meaning some who died of the virus were previously uncounted. Any increase in death tolls is cause for heartbreak, of course. But it’s better in the long run to have as precise as possible — and the 1,290 Wuhan revised yesterday is a far cry from the tens of thousands or millions some were twisting themselves into pretzels to make sound plausible.
Putting all that nonsense aside, basic arithmetic calls the whole "cover-up" thesis into question. Though it has a large urbanized population, China's proportional death rate falls well within a reasonable range; China's per-million rate falls below the Republic of Korea's and above Japan's, for instance. Strangely enough, no one is accusing Japan of falsifying its numbers. I'm sure its economic and strategic relationship with the US has nothing to do with that.
With that in mind, let's again review China's methods to see if the country passes muster. Days after sustained human-to-human transmission was confirmed, China enacted an unprecedented outbreak control regime. Among other measures, it included near-universal temperature checks, a leveled system of screening and clearly partitioned levels of quarantine. In particular, the centralized isolation of patients with mild symptoms away from home was singled out by the World Health Organization as the most effective method of curbing the spread of the virus — something the United States has yet to implement on a wide scale.
In China, testing and treatment were made free to all; meanwhile potential carriers in the US, where millions have lost their jobs and for-profit health insurance reigns supreme, are often avoiding the hospital and staying home. This can spread the virus to family members and other close contacts.
That's assuming they're not being made to work, of course. As there are no binding national-level guidelines on outbreak control or essential employment, states and localities have been given a great deal of latitude in how they are handling their epidemics. Some have adopted the necessary protocols to hamper infections. Others have dismissed concerns and voiced their desire to return to "business as usual". We will know soon enough which approach is the right one; some will pay dearly for this little federalist experiment.
There is no "cover-up" to blame for the relatively modest casualty count in China. We know exactly who is responsible: The Chinese people, who took the threat of the virus seriously and sacrificed personal comfort to comply with lockdowns, especially in Wuhan; the healthcare professionals who risked life and limb to battle the disease on the front lines; and the Chinese government, which acted decisively to blunt the contagion's spread.
That success was paid for with blood, and those who lost their lives should be venerated as martyrs in a struggle for the survival of the human race. Implying such a hard-won victory came about by fudging statistics or outright lying dishonors their memories. It's nothing more than a cheap dodge, meant to smother the wholly righteous anger radiating from those demanding answers from their government.
Instead of fabricating conspiracies from thin air, the US should be asking what it can learn from China's experience combating the epidemic. Maybe then it would see how the death rate has been kept so low.
The author is a US writer with China Daily.
The opinions expressed here are those of the writer and do not represent the views of China Daily and China Daily website.
文字評(píng)論推薦作品譯文
謊言：美國(guó)最新一輪陰謀論的源頭
作者：伊谷然
“世界上有三種謊言：謊言、彌天大謊和統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字?！?/p>
馬克·吐溫常被認(rèn)為是這句格言的作者。盡管聽(tīng)起來(lái)確實(shí)像是 他的語(yǔ)言風(fēng)格，但他并沒(méi)有說(shuō)過(guò)這句話。
不過(guò)，看看最近美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)的輿論攻擊，一些美國(guó)人應(yīng)該認(rèn)真 研究了這句名言。只是，他們把名言直接簡(jiǎn)化了:在毫無(wú)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字的情況下，他們所能拋出的只能是謊言。
美國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)新冠疫情大流行的不力表現(xiàn)簡(jiǎn)直是災(zāi)難，其政府和媒 體卻不遺余力尋找替罪羊，而最新一輪的荒謬攻擊正是源自于此。
最近，在中國(guó)訂正了新冠肺炎確診和死亡病例的數(shù)字之后，美 國(guó)又出現(xiàn)了一波抹黑中國(guó)的陰謀論。
隨著中國(guó)成功遏制病毒后有序解除封鎖，憤怒的美國(guó)民眾(美國(guó)已有數(shù)十萬(wàn)人感染新冠病毒，數(shù)以萬(wàn)計(jì)的人死亡)要求知道，為什么美國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沒(méi)有早點(diǎn)采取行動(dòng)。
但是，美國(guó)某些人不思悔過(guò)，不去積極提供真正的疫情解決方 案，而是指責(zé)中國(guó)故意少報(bào)確診人數(shù)和死亡人數(shù)，試圖“掩蓋”疫 情規(guī)模誤導(dǎo)世界。
這些言論純粹是徹頭徹尾的謊言。如果讓他們來(lái)證實(shí)自己的觀 點(diǎn)，他們會(huì)喃喃自語(yǔ)地說(shuō)出他們的直覺(jué)告訴他們是對(duì)的，最多只會(huì) 引用來(lái)源不佳的新聞報(bào)道。
2020 年 4 月 17 日，武漢市就新冠肺炎確診病例數(shù)、確診病例死亡數(shù)訂正情況進(jìn)行了通報(bào)，美國(guó)的陰謀論之火又被添了一把柴。西 方媒體的鬣狗們已經(jīng)垂涎欲滴，科學(xué)訂正疫情數(shù)據(jù)如果發(fā)生在其他 任何國(guó)家都值得稱贊，西方媒體卻從中得出了最糟糕的結(jié)論。
事實(shí)上，現(xiàn)在中國(guó)疫情最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)候已經(jīng)過(guò)去，武漢可以對(duì)數(shù) 據(jù)進(jìn)行訂正，確保統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字準(zhǔn)確。有人或許會(huì)認(rèn)為訂正疫情數(shù)據(jù)正 中“批評(píng)家”的下懷。但由于這些西方“批評(píng)家”不斷胡亂抨擊中 國(guó)，我們完全可以知道他們對(duì)所謂“透明度”的信奉到底有幾多真 誠(chéng)。
任何死亡人數(shù)的增加都會(huì)讓人心碎。但是，死亡數(shù)字的上升有幾個(gè)完全合理的解釋。
疫情處于頂峰時(shí)，武漢衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)已達(dá)到了絕對(duì)極限。這些巨大的努力并不能拯救每一個(gè)人，有些人在家里不幸去世。另外，病毒 檢測(cè)也需要時(shí)間，這意味著一些死亡人口之前沒(méi)有被統(tǒng)計(jì)在內(nèi)。
從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，數(shù)據(jù)越精確越好。西方有些人為了讓中國(guó)的疫情數(shù)據(jù)聽(tīng)起來(lái)貌似可信，將數(shù)據(jù)扭曲為幾萬(wàn)甚至幾百萬(wàn)例。武漢昨天 核增 1290 例死亡病例，這無(wú)疑與嘩眾取寵之聲相差懸殊。
此外，基本的算術(shù)就能讓整個(gè)“掩蓋數(shù)據(jù)”陰謀論受到質(zhì)疑。中國(guó)雖然城市化人口眾多，但人口死亡比例仍在合理范圍內(nèi)。例如，
中國(guó)的新冠肺炎死亡率低于韓國(guó)，高于日本。奇怪的是，沒(méi)有人指責(zé)日本偽造數(shù)據(jù)。我相信美日經(jīng)濟(jì)和戰(zhàn)略關(guān)系與此無(wú)關(guān)。
讓我們?cè)俅位仡櫼幌轮袊?guó)的抗“疫”之路，看看這個(gè)國(guó)家應(yīng)對(duì)疫情是否合格。
在確認(rèn)病毒會(huì)持續(xù)人傳人之后，中國(guó)就實(shí)施了前所未有的管控舉措。包括幾乎所有場(chǎng)所都要體溫檢測(cè)、分級(jí)篩查和明確劃分的隔 離級(jí)別。世界衛(wèi)生組織特別指出，將癥狀輕微的患者從家中隔離轉(zhuǎn) 為集中隔離是遏制病毒傳播的最有效方法，而美國(guó)尚未大規(guī)模實(shí)施 這一措施。
在中國(guó)，檢測(cè)和治療對(duì)所有人免費(fèi)。相反，美國(guó)的醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)以盈利為目的，潛在的病毒攜帶者往往不去醫(yī)院，而是呆在家里。這 會(huì)將病毒傳播給家庭成員和其他密切接觸者。
此外，由于在疫情控制或就業(yè)方面沒(méi)有具有約束力的國(guó)家級(jí)指導(dǎo)方針，美國(guó)各州在處理疫情方面有很大的自由度。一些州采取了 必要措施來(lái)防止感染。其他地方則對(duì)這些擔(dān)憂不屑一顧，并表示希 望“一切如常”。我們很快就會(huì)知道哪種方法是正確的，有些人會(huì) 為這個(gè)小小的聯(lián)邦主義實(shí)驗(yàn)付出沉重代價(jià)。
疫情期間，中國(guó)死亡人數(shù)相對(duì)較少，絕不是因?yàn)樗^的“掩蓋數(shù)據(jù)”。我們清楚地知道誰(shuí)為此做出了貢獻(xiàn)：中國(guó)人民。
中國(guó)政府果斷采取行動(dòng)，中國(guó)人民嚴(yán)肅對(duì)待病毒，犧牲個(gè)人生活遵守封鎖措施，特別是在武漢。醫(yī)護(hù)人員在前線冒著生命危險(xiǎn)與 疾病作斗爭(zhēng)。這些都遏制了疫情危機(jī)的蔓延。
成功來(lái)之不易，那些為人類生存而犧牲的人應(yīng)該作為烈士受到尊敬。暗示這一來(lái)之不易的勝利是通過(guò)捏造數(shù)據(jù)，甚至公然說(shuō)謊來(lái) 玷污中國(guó)，這只不過(guò)是一種廉價(jià)的托詞，意在壓制那些憤怒的要求 美國(guó)政府作出回應(yīng)的人。
美國(guó)不應(yīng)憑空捏造陰謀論，而應(yīng)問(wèn)問(wèn)自己能從中國(guó)抗擊疫情的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)中學(xué)到什么。也許那時(shí)它就會(huì)明白為什么中國(guó)的死亡率保 持在這么低的水平。
