Economists expect GDP to return to growth in Q2（中國經(jīng)濟(jì)有望強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，二季度GDP或由負(fù)轉(zhuǎn)正）

　　作品原文：

　　Economists expect GDP to return to growth in Q2

　　By LI XIANG | CHINA DAILY |

　　China's economy may return to the expansion mode from the second quarter after a sharp contraction in the first quarter, and the country's policies will remain supportive for the rest of the year to help the economy advance steadily out of the COVID-19 pandemic, experts said.

　　The country is scheduled to release a set of key economic data this week on second-quarter GDP, trade, investment, industrial production and retail sales.

　　While the government has abandoned setting a specific growth target for this year, much attention remains focused on the second-quarter GDP growth rate as it will shed light on the outlook for the world's second-largest economy and Beijing's future policy direction.

　　Most economists expect the country's GDP growth rate to turn positive in the second quarter with some projecting growth as high as 3 percent, a sharp rebound from the 6.8 percent contraction in the previous quarter.

　　The optimistic views reinforced expectations that China's economic recovery will continue in the coming quarters, driven by further improvement of domestic demand and investment along with continuous policy support in key areas including employment and corporate operations.

　　Some economists forecast that China's GDP growth could rebound to around 6 percent in the second half of the year and the country may achieve full-year growth of around 2 to 3 percent.

　　The recent economic data continued to indicate that China's economy is recovering strongly as both the official and private purchasing managers indexes for the manufacturing and services sectors showed strong expansion in June compared with the previous month.

　　The country's industrial production is expected to continue to edge higher while the contraction in retail sales is expected to narrow to around zero in June from-2.8 percent in May. Growth in fixed-asset investment will remain robust with infrastructure investment expanding at a double-digit rate thanks to abundant government funding, economists said.

　　"Economic recovery should continue, following the recent rebound in the second quarter. Domestic consumption will likely improve further with continued policy support and the normalization of economic activity," said Wang Tao, chief China economist at Swiss bank UBS.

　　"We expect policies to remain supportive while the continued recovery lately has reduced incentives for greater stimulus in the short term," Wang said.

　　The People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, said on Friday that it will withdraw its special-time monetary policy after fulfilling the objectives amid the COVID-19 outbreak, but this does not mean a shift in the overall direction of monetary policy or a weakening of support for the economy. The policy outlook will remain prudent and flexible by focusing on providing appropriate funding to support economic growth in the second half of the year, said the PBOC.

　　Economists warned that the better-than-expected rebound does not mean that China's economic recovery will be plain sailing as headwinds and uncertainties remain in the second half of the year.

　　Wang Jun, chief economist at Zhongyuan Bank, said that the difficulties facing the country's smaller businesses and low-income families may drag down the economic rebound in the second half of 2020.

　　Wang said that China's fiscal policy support needs to intensify in the second half of the year to ensure sufficient funding for major projects and the protection of people's basic livelihoods. Meanwhile, monetary policy will be more targeted to help lower funding costs for smaller businesses, as there have been signs of marginal policy fine-tuning by the central bank, he added.

　　The uncertainties resulting from China-US disputes in trade and the technology sector and the decline of the global economy may also pose risks for China as these factors could hit the country's exports. In addition, the possibility of a re-escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic as the weather cools down in the third and fourth quarters also means that policy easing may step up again, economists said.

　　"We should not underestimate the destruction caused by the pandemic on the global value chain, and China will need to continue its policy support to shore up demand, expand investment and adjust its export structure to ensure stable growth," said Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the China Association of Policy Sciences' economic policy committee.

　　作品譯文：

　　中國經(jīng)濟(jì)有望強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，二季度GDP或由負(fù)轉(zhuǎn)正

　　2020年7月13日 中國日報(bào)記者李想報(bào)道

　　中國經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)在一季度大幅收縮后將強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，GDP有望從第二季度恢復(fù)正增長。政府將繼續(xù)出臺一系列支持經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇和穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的政策以幫助經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)步擺脫新冠疫情帶來的負(fù)面影響。

　　中國計(jì)劃在本周公布包括二季度GDP增速以及貿(mào)易、投資、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)和社會零售等一系列重要經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。

　　盡管中國政府沒有設(shè)定今年具體的增長目標(biāo)，第二季度GDP增速仍然備受關(guān)注，因?yàn)檫@將反應(yīng)世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長前景和中國未來的政策方向。主要經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，中國第二季度GDP將由負(fù)轉(zhuǎn)正，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)GDP增速將達(dá)到3%左右，在上一季度GDP下降6.8%的基礎(chǔ)上大幅反彈。

　　這一樂觀展望強(qiáng)化了市場對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在未來幾個(gè)季度將繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇的預(yù)期。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速反彈得益于國內(nèi)需求和投資的進(jìn)一步改善，特別是政府在關(guān)鍵經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域出臺的一系列保就業(yè)、穩(wěn)增長的支持政策。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測，今年下半年中國GDP增速可能回升至6%左右，全年增速可能達(dá)到2%至3%左右。

　　最新經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)正在強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇。6月份官方和財(cái)新制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)均較上月強(qiáng)勁擴(kuò)張。預(yù)計(jì)中國的工業(yè)增加值將繼續(xù)回升，社會消費(fèi)品零售總額從5月份的-2.8%反彈，并從六月份開始扭轉(zhuǎn)下跌趨勢。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，得益于充裕的政府紓困資金，中國的固定資產(chǎn)投資仍將保持強(qiáng)勁增長，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資也將以兩位數(shù)的速度增長。

　　瑞銀首席中國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家汪濤表示在第二季度反彈之后中國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇預(yù)計(jì)會持續(xù)下去。“隨著更多政府支持政策出臺和國民經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的正?；?，國內(nèi)消費(fèi)可能會進(jìn)一步改善?！薄拔覀冾A(yù)計(jì)政策將持續(xù)支持經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，而近期的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇或短期內(nèi)降低政府出臺更大規(guī)模刺激政策的可能?！?/p>

　　中國人民銀行周五表示在實(shí)現(xiàn)防控疫情期間的政策目標(biāo)后將撤回特殊時(shí)期的貨幣政策，但這并不意味著貨幣政策總體方向的轉(zhuǎn)變或?qū)?jīng)濟(jì)支持力度減弱。中國人民銀行表示，貨幣政策將保持審慎和靈活適度，政策重點(diǎn)是提供適當(dāng)?shù)馁Y金量來支持下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家稱，好于預(yù)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈并不意味著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇會一帆風(fēng)順，下半年仍面臨挑戰(zhàn)和不確定性。

　　中原銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家王軍表示，中國小企業(yè)和低收入家庭面臨的困難可能會給2020年下半年的經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈帶來壓力。他表示中國需加大財(cái)政政策的支持力度，確保重大項(xiàng)目資金充足，保障人民基本生活。同時(shí)貨幣政策將更有針對性地幫助降低中小企業(yè)的融資成本。

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，中美貿(mào)易和技術(shù)領(lǐng)域的爭端以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑帶來的不確定性也可能給中國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)檫@些因素可能會影響中國的出口。此外，隨著第三和第四季度天氣降溫，新冠疫情可能再次升級，這也意味著政府可能再次采取寬松政策。